CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-08-09T21:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-09T21:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32663/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is an M4.5 flare peaking at 2024-08-09T21:23Z from AR 3774 (approx. S05W40). Eruption with rising/opening field lines and dimming are best seen in SDO AIA 193, GOES 284, and STEREO A EUV 195. No clear CME arrival signatures in the solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-13T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 35.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2024 Aug 10 1835 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A partial halo  Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) mostly directed to the south-west (140 deg), was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 21:36 UTC on August 09, likely associated with the M4.5 flare with peak time 21:23 UTC. Analysis suggests that this CME may have a glancing blow at Earth early on August 13.
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
#                                                                    #

Lead Time: 61.80 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-08-10T14:12Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement